Welcome to 2009 - the Year of Uncertainty

Just a few days into 2009, and already the talk everywhere is about the uncertainties of the year ahead. Of course, this is partly media hype but there is a very real sense that, after last year's extrordinary events, nobody really knows what is going on any more in finance, business or management.

So what should the astute manager do? Answer: manage uncertainty.

Managing uncertainty sounds like a contradiction in terms. Management is normally about order, planning, measuring, observing, calculating, reasoning: things that we can be certain of. But in times of change and turmoil, there may be no certainties, no definite ways to manage, no easy answers. That is why we need to develop a management approach that copes with the messy, the crazy, the illogical and the contradictory.

Managing uncertainty requires us to handle the following concepts...
1. beliefs that you can't prove
2. goals that might change
3. priorities that don't stay the same
4. knowledge that you can't be sure of
5. plans that get ditched
6. actions that don't lead where you expected
7. outcomes that you don't expect.

Rosabeth Moss Kanter probably described it best a few years ago when she said that the modern manager needs to be "an elephant that has learned how to dance". In other words, firmly grounded in the right values and the right certainties but adaptable to changing times and the changing fears of customers and employees.

The following story is a good one to take us all through 2009. It's called "You Never Know..."

The Sultan of Persia had sentenced two men to death.
One of the men, knowing how much the sultan liked his stallion, offered to teach the horse to fly within a year if the sultan would spare him his life.
The sultan, fancying himself as the rider of the only flying horse in the world, agreed.

"You're mad,” said the other prisoner. “You know that horses can't fly. You're only putting off the inevitable.”
"Not so,” said the first prisoner. “I have four chances of escaping my sentence.
First, the sultan might die.
Secondly, I might die.
Thirdly, the horse might die.
And fourth…I might teach the horse to fly.”

Moral: Never be too certain of what the future holds.

Learn how to cope with change and come out of the year on top with Change Management resources from ManageTrainLearn.